By Neeraj Kumar
Patna: The by-elections for four seats in the Bihar Assembly are being viewed as a ‘litmus test’ for the state’s political landscape ahead of the 2025 Assembly elections, with potential shifts in electoral equations. Of the four constituencies going to the polls on November 13, three were held by the Grand Alliance, while one belonged to the NDA. The credibility of the Grand Alliance, NDA, and the newly formed Jan Suraaj Party is on the line in this contest.
Political experts have termed these by-elections the ‘semi-final’ for the upcoming Assembly elections. Consequently, leaders like Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and other senior NDA figures have intensified their campaign efforts, joined by prominent Grand Alliance leaders such as Tejashwi Yadav and Mukesh Sahni. Nitish Kumar campaigned on November 10 and November 11, while Lalu Prasad Yadav rallied from Belaganj on the final day, heating up the atmosphere. Prashant Kishor has also campaigned vigorously.
The Ramgarh Assembly seat has attracted considerable attention, with analysts speculating that the caste dynamics may shift this time. In 2015, BJP’s Ashok Kumar Singh won here, only to be unseated by RJD’s Sudhakar Singh in 2020. Now, Ajit Kumar Singh, Sudhakar’s younger brother, is contesting for the RJD, while the BJP has once again backed Ashok Kumar Singh. Jan Suraaj has fielded Sushil Kumar Kushwaha, while BSP’s Satish Kumar Singh Yadav, nephew of Ambika Singh, is also in the fray.
In Tarari, BJP has nominated Vishal Prashant, son of Sunil Pandey, against CPI(ML) candidate Raju Yadav. This seat, a CPI(ML) bastion since its formation post-delimitation in 2008, has seen victories by CPI(ML)’s Sudama Prasad in recent elections. With the Grand Alliance’s backing, Prasad won the 2020 election by a significant margin, but Raju Yadav now faces a tough battle to retain this hold, with additional challengers from Jan Suraaj and BSP intensifying the competition.
The Belaganj constituency has been a stronghold of Surendra Yadav since 1990. Following his election as an MP, his son Vishwanath Singh has stepped in for RJD. However, the NDA has fielded Manorama Devi, wife of former MLC Bindi Yadav, which could complicate matters for RJD. Manorama Devi’s recent legal troubles, including an NIA raid resulting in the seizure of cash and weapons, have not deterred Nitish Kumar from backing her. Jan Suraaj’s Mohammad Amjad and AIMIM’s candidate are also in the race, potentially dividing the Muslim vote, which could pose a challenge for the Grand Alliance.
Imamganj, a reserved seat, sees a contest with Deepa Manjhi, daughter-in-law of Union Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, representing the NDA. Jan Suraaj’s Jitendra Paswan and AIMIM’s Kanchan Paswan are also contenders, making for a competitive race. RJD has fielded Roshan Manjhi, a seasoned candidate who previously lost twice to JD(U)’s Uday Narayan Chaudhary. The constituency’s voter base includes substantial numbers from the Manjhi, Dangi, Muslim, and Yadav communities, making it a complex electoral landscape.
Political analyst Bholanath notes that Ramgarh, bordering Uttar Pradesh, has a significant BSP influence, while the contests in Belaganj and Imamganj are far from straightforward. Although NDA appears united across the four seats, the Grand Alliance’s efforts seem fragmented, with individual parties focusing on their own seats rather than presenting a cohesive front.
As these by-elections unfold, they provide a preview of the broader 2025 Assembly contest. Prashant Kishor and BSP’s active participation has created triangular and quadrangular battles, complicating predictions and raising stakes for all parties involved.
